Official Statement On RSP & Associates Enrollment Forecast & Capacity Analysis and the Board of Education’s Three Proposed Referendum Options

August 18, 2024

BABD has reviewed the findings of RSP & Associates and based on their 90-page report, has the following observations and recommendations at this time:

• The growth and enrollment projections for the next five years prepared by RSP appear defensible and likely accurate. They mirror our own projections very closely. As such, we do believe that planning for the next five years based on these numbers is a reasonable and valid approach.
• From year 6 to 10, the commentary in the report increasingly begins using terms like “could be” or “up to”.  We understand this degree of variability, as no firm like RSP can predict the future with such clarity. For this reason, RSP will not guarantee their enrollment forecast beyond 1-5 years. 
• RSP's projections for years 6-10 are heavily dependent on the construction of a single subdivision: Pingree Creek by a developer named Shodeen Corp. While this development COULD add many homes to the district over its lifetime of development, there have been no assurances by either the City of Elgin, nor Shodeen, that the development will in fact happen, when it might happen, and at what pace it will happen, if it does. The exact mix of housing types in this development - which would affect student yield - has also not been finalized and possible challenges with infrastructure improvements were also noted by RSP.  As recently as May 2024, Shodeen was in discussion with the Village of Pingree Grove about selling 90 +/- acres of the planned Pingree Creek development.  

Click the image to access RSP's full report.

We agree that a solution is needed to address the current challenges at the elementary level, and potentially the middle school level,  as directly identified and supported by RSP’s enrollment forecast data.  The forecasted growth of only 742* total students across grades K through 12 over the next 10 years, with only 277* total students expected over the next 5 years, should be the basis of any current planning.  We believe this should include the following: 

*Page 67 of RSP’s report; Page title: Past, Current, & Future Enrollment

• Construction of a two-story, 700-student grade school in or near Plato Center. ($55M)
• • This would manage expected growth in the pre-K to 5 cohort and is longer-term likely to be a better outcome than further expansions to existing elementary schools. 
  • This will allow a shift of 500 or more students out of the four existing elementary schools, bringing their functional capacities down to roughly 80% (based on RSP’s functional capacity numbers), eliminates mobile units, eliminates compression across all grade schools and leaves room at all 5 schools for additional possible future growth.
  • Alternatively, there is the option to add 8 classrooms at Prairie View, Country Trails, and Howard B. Thomas rather than purpose-build an entire elementary school.
• An 8- to 12-classroom addition to PKMS to manage expected growth in the 6-7 cohort. ($15M)
• • As RSP’s report clearly shows, CMS has enough space to expand 8th grade offerings well beyond a decade.   Prairie Knolls needs to address some nominal compression in the next 10 years that is easily handled with expanding the building as it was designed to do.
  • Alternatively, there is the option to add an 8th grade wing to Prairie Knolls Middle School and create a "unified middle school" at that site.  There is sufficient acreage to do so.
• Address "pinch points" at CHS to improve experience. ($10M)
• • Improvements to include additional parking and west driveway realignment, elimination of hallway lockers and remodeling to include locker banks to address narrow corridor issues, and re-introduction of traditional cafeteria seating to maximize capacity. 

This is a conservative and responsible approach to addressing the specific issues at each level at a cost that sits well under the district’s current remaining debt ceiling of $126 million. 

Building A Better District

This is STILL not a “no campaign”.  This is STILL a “not-this-plan” campaign.