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This content related to the proposed $195 million referendum on the March 19, 2024 Ballot and was based on the information available at that time. It is preserved here for the reference of the community.
RSP's report featured a "Development Table" that identified the developments from the City of Elgin's West Development Map. Several of these developments were approved prior to 2008 and have not been developed in any way, nor do they show signs of imminent development. Below is a reproduction of the data provided on page 33 of RSP's Report. The last two columns (Potential Students and Student Yield Factor) were added by BABD to show the potential student yield per development.
As you can see from the chart below, RSP is projecting a total of 742 students district-wide over the next decade. That is slightly less than .281 students per 100 homes based on 3,134 potential units being constructed.
BABD reached out to several land owners and developers from this chart in September to confirm their status and identify if development was imminent. What we discovered is at least 2 of the developments do not belong in the chart at this time. Additional issues such as lack of water and sewer infrastructure will hamper the development of others in this chart. As such, we made adjustments to those developments (such as Seven Creeks which is now owned by private land owners with no intention of development). Based on those adjustments, we believe the district's enrollment growth could be even less than 742 students over a decade. This is not an error on RSP's part, they simply took the information provided by the municipalities as "potential for development" and created their chart. We took it a step further to explore how soon these subdivisions could become active to get an even better idea of how much enrollment growth may actually be coming .
Approved developments are on the City of Elgin plan, but approval does not translate into construction, and getting a project to the construction stage can take decades. Building a 450,000 SF high school on the promise of future development is neither fiscally responsible nor prudent based on the information we have today. |